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BIG DAWG WEATHER

2 Tornadoes Confirmed in Larue County

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A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURVEY TEAM IN COORDINATION WITH 
LARUE COUNTY EMERGERGENCY MANAGEMENT SURVEYED DAMAGE IN SOUTHERN 
LARUE COUNTY FROM STORMS THAT OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT WAS 
DETERMINED THAT A BRIEF EF-1 TORNADO THAT WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN A 
LARGER AREA OF STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS TOUCHED DOWN 1.3 MILES SOUTHEAST 
OF UPTON, TRAVELED EAST FOR JUST OVER 2.5 MILES, AND THEN LIFTED 3 
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF UPTON. THE EF-1 TORNADO HAD A MAX WIND OF 
AROUND 100 MPH, AND A MAX PATH WIDTH OF AROUND 200 YARDS.

THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN AT SOLID EF-1 STRENGTH JUST NORTHWEST OF 
THE INTERSECTION OF WELDON LOOP ROAD AND WATKINS ALVEY ROAD WHERE A 
SMALL BARN WAS COMPLETELY DESTROYED, AND DEBRIS WAS SCATTERED IN 
MANY DIRECTIONS ALMOST A HALF-MILE TO THE NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION, A 
SMALL LEAN-TO SECTION OF ANOTHER BARN WAS THROWN BACK TO THE 
NORTHWEST, CLEAR EVIDENCE OF CYCLONIC ROTATION. HARDWOOD TREES JUST 
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE BARN WERE ALSO SNAPPED AND LAYING IN A 
CONVERGENT PATTERN, OFFERING MORE SUPPORT FOR TORNADIC WINDS.

THE TORNADO CONTINUED ROUGHLY EASTWARD ALONG WELDON LOOP ROAD WHERE 
IT DID SOME LIGHT DAMAGE TO A BARN ROOF AND BROUGHT DOWN LARGE LIMBS 
FROM A HARDWOOD TREE. THIS DAMAGE OCCURRED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF 
JOHNSON ROAD AND WELDON LOOP ROAD, AND WAS IN THE EF-0 STRENGTH 
RANGE. THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO THE ENE ALONG WELDON LOOP ROAD AT EF-
0 STRENGTH AS IT CAUSED MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO A HOUSE, AND DAMAGED A 
GREENHOUSE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF WHEELER AND WHELDON LOOP ROADS. 
THE TORNADO FINISHED THE LAST HALF MILE OF ITS PATH ALONG UPTON 
TALLEY ROAD WHERE IT UPROOTED OR SNAPPED SOFTWOOD TREES, DAMAGED 
BARNS, AND DID MINOR FASCIA AND SHINGLE DAMAGE TO A COUPLE OF HOMES. 
THE TORNADO LIFTED ABOUT A QUARTER MILE PAST THE UPTON TALLEY AND 
LANNY HEATH ROADS INTERSECTION.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS BRIEF TORNADO OCCURRED WITHIN A LARGER 
AREA OF STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE WHERE SOME OLDER BARNS WERE 
DESTROYED AND NUMEROUS SOFTWOOD AND HARDWOOD TREES WERE SNAPPED OR 
UPROOTED. HOWEVER, THE DAMAGE WAS MAINLY LAYING IN AN EAST-NORTHEAST 
DIRECTION CONSISTENT WITH OVERALL STORM MOTION AND A STRAIGHT-LINE 
WIND SIGNATURE. IT WAS CONSIDERED TO MAKE THIS DAMAGE PART OF THE 
OVERALL TORNADO, HOWEVER THE PATH WIDTH WOULD HAVE BEEN OVER A HALF 
MILE WIDE, WHICH IS UNLIKELY FOR BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADOES EMBEDDED IN 
A QLCS.

IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT MORE SPORADIC, AND OVERALL WEAKER, 
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE CONTINUED EASTWARD ALONG A CONSISTENT PATH 
ACROSS SOUTHERN LARUE COUNTY. MOST OF THIS DAMAGE WAS CONSISTENT 
WITH WINDS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH TOWARD AND JUST NORTH OF THE 
MAGNOLIA COMMUNITY AND POINTS EASTWARD. A SECOND EF-0 TORNADO DID 
TOUCH DOWN NEAR MOUNT TABOR AND POINTS EASTWARD AND IS COVERED IN 
ANOTHER PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ALREADY ISSUED. (Other Survey Summery Below) 

First Tornado: 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE IN COORDINATION WITH 
LARUE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED AN EF0 TORNADO IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL LARUE COUNTY. THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST WEST OF LOGAN 
DESPAIN ROAD, CAUSING DAMAGE TO THE METAL ROOF OF A FARM 
OUTBUILDING, AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF A LEAN-TO ATTACHMENT ON THE 
SIDE OF THE SAME FARM OUTBUILDING. THE TORNADO THEN CROSSED 
GREENSBURG ROAD NEAR BROWNFIELD CREEK, HEADING TOWARDS MOUNT TABOR 
ROAD. ONE HOME ON MOUNT TABOR ROAD SUFFERED MINOR ROOF DAMAGE, AND 
THE HOME ACROSS THE ROAD HAD SEVERAL HEALTHY PINE TREES SNAPPED AS 
THE TORNADO CONTINUED ON ITS PATH. THE TORNADO CONTINUED EAST-
NORTHEAST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF MOUNT TABOR ROAD, CAUSING SEVERAL 
HARDWOOD TREES TO FALL IN THE DIRECTIONS OF NORTH OR NORTHEAST. 
CYCLONIC CURVATURE OF THE FALLEN TREES WAS MADE EVIDENT WHEN NWS 
LOUISVILLE FLEW THEIR DRONE OVER THAT AREA. SOME ROOF DAMAGE AND 
BARN DOOR DAMAGE OCCURRED ABOUT 450 YARDS WEST OF THE INTERSECTION 
OF MOUNT TABOR ROAD AND BENNETT ROAD. THE TORNADO CONTINUED JUST 
NORTH OF MOUNT TABOR BAPTIST CHURCH AND CROSSED MOUNT TABOR ROAD 
ONCE AGAIN ABOUT 175 YARDS NORTH OF BENNETT ROAD. WHEN DOING SO, THE 
EF0 TORNADO CAUSED SOFTWOOD TREE DAMAGE AND LIFTED AND DESTROYED A 
CARPORT. THE TORNADO THEN CONTINUED TOWARDS HINTON'S ORCHARD AND 
FARM MARKET. THE ORCHARD HAD PARTIAL LOSS OF ITS METAL ROOF ON THE 
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BUILDING. THE PROPERTY ALSO HAS SEVERAL 
GREENHOUSES DAMAGED. THE TORNADO THEN CROSSED CAMPBELLSVILLE ROAD 
AND DISSIPATED A SHORT DISTANCE LATER. WINDS WERE CONSISTENTLY 
ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 75-85 MPH ALONG THE DAMAGE PATH. 
EF SCALE:  THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE 
FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0...WEAK.....65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK.....86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG...111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG...136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT..166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT..>200 MPH

NOTE:  THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT 
TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NWS 
STORM DATA.

Severe Weather Threat Wednesday

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A threat of strong to severe thunderstorms increases over the area Wednesday evening into the overnight hours. At this time, the highest threat of severe weather stretches along and west of the I-65 corridor from through central Kentucky. Straight-line damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be the main threats, with severe storms for Central and Eastern Kentucky. The biggest question is how fast these storms will move in, and how much energy will be available for them once they arrive. This will significantly affect how intense storms will be in our area. Please stay weather aware throughout the day tomorrow; we will be tracking it every second! Below are the latest slides/Info from the SPC/NWS:

Bottom Line

  • Gusty winds of 30-40 mph Wednesday afternoon
  • Strong to severe storms expected Wednesday evening into the overnight hours
  • Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are the main threats, although large hail and localized flash flooding are possible

SPC Outlook 

 

TIMING 

 

 

 

 

 

Severe Weather Likely Wednesday

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Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday afternoon and could become strong to severe. However, a more significant threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will be seen across the outlook area on Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours. Our biggest question mark will be the availability of instability (energy) when the line arrives. At this time, the highest risk of severe weather is in  Western Ky, and west of I-65 in central Kentucky, as instability will be highest there. The main threat with
strong/severe storms will be straight-line winds, with the potential for an isolated embedded spin-up tornado within the line. 

Bottom Line: 

  • A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to develop in advance of the cold front.
  • Damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes will be possible will be possible with these storms.
  • Isolated severe storms possible Wednesday afternoon, but more widespread severe potential between 8pm EDT and 4 am EDT
  • Stay tuned, as there is still some uncertainy with this system 

 

SPC OUTLOOK: 

 

 

Severe Weather Possible Wednesday

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Multiple rounds of showers and storms are possible through Wednesday night. The best chances for storms will be Monday night and Wednesday into Wednesday night. A few storms on Monday night could produce locally heavy rainfall and some hail, and strong to severe storms are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night. The main hazard Wednesday and Wednesday night will be damaging winds, but all severe weather modes are possible. Wednesday has my attention, and I think it is the most significant severe weather threat we have seen this year. Right now, I think the higher threat lies across the western part of the state, which is some good news for us locally. The current forecast is for a line of strong to severe storms to push across the state, but as we progress into Wednesday night, this line will begin to weaken. When this weakening starts will have a significant effect on how intense the storms will be when they arrive in central Kentucky. All interests should stay updated on the forecast as we iron out the details.

Wednesday SPC Outlook 

 

 

Snowflakes Possible Friday and Saturday

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Unseasonably cold weather is expected Friday night through Saturday night, with a few snow showers possible late Friday night into Saturday morning. Some slushy accumulation is possible, but nothing significant is expected. A freeze is likely Sunday morning before temperatures rise into the middle 60's on Sunday. Temperatures next week will jump into the 70's, with strong/severe storms possible. We will keep you updated as needed! 

Future Radar Saturday Morning 

 

 

 

Strong/Severe Storms Expected Tomorrow

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HIGH WINDS
Very gusty winds and the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms will arrive Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening ahead of a strong cold front. Wind gusts Wednesday afternoon will be
45-55 mph ahead of the evening showers and storms. There is also an enhanced fire danger for locations east of I-65 tomorrow afternoon. Strong winds, dry fuels, and low relative humidity will make for challenging conditions to control any outdoor burning.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
Showers and embedded thunderstorms will potentially have locally enhanced wind gusts and a brief spin-up tornado Wednesday evening. Storms are expected to be in the central Kentucky area between 8-11 PM EST. The SPC has placed the entire area in aq SLIGHT risk for severe weather, which means scattered severe storms are possible. This could get upgraded based on how tomorrow plays out. I will be monitoring things closely, and I will provide LIVE severe weather coverage if severe storms break out.  
SPC OUTLOOK 

 

Strong/Severe Storms Possible Wednesday

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Good Sunday Evening, Folks! I am monitoring the potential for very gusty winds and strong or severe thunderstorms on Wednesday into early Thursday morning ahead of a strong cold front. Wind fields are more than sufficient for organized severe weather, and the pattern also favors it. However, there is some uncertainty in how much energy these storms have to work with. For now, the SPC Outlook remains to the south and west of our region, where the most significant threat is expected to be, but I still expect central Kentucky to be placed in some type of severe risk in later outlooks. Damaging winds with brief spin-up tornadoes are the main threats right now. I will monitor this system this week and give updates as needed! Stay tuned! 

SPC OUTLOOK   

 

 

Tuesday Afternoon Update

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Good Afternoon, Folks! Widespread showers/storms are expected across the region tonight. Some rain could be heavy at times, but no severe weather is expected! Another weather system will bring a period of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall to the area into Wednesday. This may result in some localized flooding and elevated river levels during the midweek timeframe. A few strong storms will be possible Wednesday with gusty winds, cloud-to-ground lightning, and brief heavy rainfall. The SPC has placed most of the area in a Marginal risk for severe weather tomorrow, which means Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible but are limited in coverage, intensity, or duration. We will keep you updated if any severe weather breaks out! Have a great night! 

Winter Storm Threat Friday Night/Saturday Morning

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Crashing temperatures behind a strong cold front will bring a change from rain to snow over the region Friday night into Saturday. Snow accumulations between 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts, are likely through Saturday morning, along with well below average temperatures and low wind chills through Saturday night. Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Watches are in effect for the entire area. 

WEATHER ALERTS 

TIMING 

NWS ACCUMULATION MAP 

NAM Accumulation Map 

CANADIAN Accumulation Map

HRRR Accumulation Map

Wednesday Night Update

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Good Wednesday Evening, Folks. Crashing temperatures behind a strong cold front will bring a change from rain to snow over the region Friday night into Saturday. Accumulating snow is likely through Saturday morning, along with well below normal temperatures and low wind chills through Saturday night. Below are some key messages regarding this weekends system: 

  • Travel impacts are likely Friday night and Saturday morning, and significant impacts due to heavy snow are possible.
  • Higher snow accumulations likely east of I-65, with the heaviest snow near and east of I-75.
  • Very cold temperatures are likely following the snow over the weekend.
  • Confidence has increased in travel impacts due to accumulating snow Friday night through Saturday.

Tonight's data has increased snowfall accumulations across our area, and The NWS will likely issue a Winter Storm Watch at some point tomorrow if this trend continues. Below is tonight's data so far; please pay close attention to the forecast, as changes will occur. Have a fantastic night, folks! 

NAM Model 

CANADIAN Model 

GFS Model 

Weekend Snow Increasing

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Good Tuesday evening, folks! A storm system will likely bring wintry weather to the region Friday night into Saturday morning, increasing the chances of accumulating snow. There is still a good amount of uncertainty with this system. Therefore, there is no confidence on exact timing and potential snowfall amounts right now. Continue to check the latest forecasts, as things will change throughout the week. Below are the newest snowfall accumulation forecasts from various computer models. Stay tuned!  

EURO 

NAM (The NAM only goes through 84 hours, so this map is only sjowing half the storm) 

GFS 

 

 

 

Wintry Mischief This Weekend?

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Good Monday Evening, Folks. We are much calmer tonight after an active weather morning, with temperatures around 40 degrees. We are looking at another rain chance tomorrow night; otherwise, I expect a quiet week with high temperatures in the 50s. Im watching a system that could bring significant winter precipitation to the region on Friday night into Saturday. At this time, there is good agreement in a large cooldown from the middle 60s on Friday to the lower 20s on Friday night. There is also reasonable agreement in the data that widespread precipitation will be likely during the same period. We don't know how strong this system will be, what its exact track will be, and how much moisture will still be around once temperatures drop below freezing. Regardless, everyone in the state of Kentucky should monitor the latest forecasts, as almost all the data is signaling for significant winter weather this weekend. Nothing is set in stone just yet, and things WILL change, so stay tuned to us for the latest! 

GFS Simulated Radar 

EURO Simulated Radar

Active Sunday Expected

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Good Sunday morning, folks. A frontal boundary will stall across central Kentucky today. Showers and storms will develop and train along this boundary, resulting in heavy rain and potential flash flooding periods. A strong gusty shower or storm could also develop this afternoon. The National Weather Service Service has issued a Flood Watch for the areas they believe has the most significant potential for flash flooding.

We are also looking at a severe weather threat this afternoon and early tomorrow morning. Damaging winds are the main threat, but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. The SPC has placed much of the state in a SLIGHT risk for severe weather, which means scattered severe storms are possible.  

Stay weather aware today, we'll keep you updated on the latest!

Wet Weather Continues

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Good Wednesday Evening, Folks. Not much has changed in the forecast. Light precipitation is expected to move into the area later tonight and Thursday morning. As surface temperatures drop near or below freezing portions of north-central Kentucky, may see some freezing rain and sleet mix in. Slippery road conditions will be possible in that area, especially on bridges and overpasses. Here in Central Kentucky, some sleet or ice will be possible, but no impacts are anticipated at this time. 

Another round of moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be possible across south-central Kentucky Thursday into early Friday morning. Additional rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 2.5 inches will be possible, resulting in additional threats of flooding. The National Weather Service has issued another Flood Watch for much of the area, effective until Friday morning. As always, Ill be monitoring the weather, and will provide updates as needed! 

Precipitation Forecast 

Active Weather Pattern Continues

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Good Tuesday night, folks! Wednesday will provide a brief break, with partly sunny skies and highs in the middle 40s. Our next system will move in Wednesday night and continue through Friday. Additional rainfall between 1-2 inches is likely, resulting in isolated flooding, especially over south-central Kentucky. Below is the Excessive rainfall outlook from the WPC, which slows a slight risk for excessive rainfall across portions of central and eastern Kentucky. Slight risk means that there is a 15% chance of localized flooding within 25 miles of any point inside the yellow. 

 

Wintry Threat? 

Looking ahead toward the weekend, model discrepancies remain. The GFS wants to bring a wintry system across our area Saturday night into Sunday, while other models like the EURO show a drier solution. If we see impactful wintery weather here this weekend, I have to see a higher consistency in the model data. We will see what the data shows over the next few days, but im not very confident at this time. Stay tuned. 

 

Heavy Rain/Strong Storm Threat Increases

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Happy Monday, Folks! Our active weather week is about to get underway tonight, where widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is expected late tonight through Tuesday evening. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches will likely result in flooding of low-lying areas, small streams, and eventual river flooding. The National Weather Service has issued a Flood WATCH for the entire state.

FLOOD WATCH 

In Addition to our flooding threat,  A few strong to severe storms are also possible on Tuesday afternoon, mainly in south-central Kentucky. Damaging winds and isolated spin-up tornadoes are the primary severe weather threats. The Storm Prediction Center has placed Western Kentucky in a SLIGHT risk for severe weather, which means scattered severe storms are possible. Much of Central Kentucky remains in a MARGINAL risk, which means isolated severe storms possible. 

Another round of heavy rainfall will impact the state Wednesday night through Friday, with 1-3 inches of additional rain expected. This will likely add to additional flooding issues. Another Storm system is possible on Sunday, which could bring some light accumulating snow to the area. 

Ill keep you updated with the latest information, stay tuned! 

 

Very Active Weather Week Ahead

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Good Sunday Afternoon everyone! We have a very active weather week ahead, and just about every threat is on the table for this week Including flooding, severe thunderstorms, and winter weather. I have a lot to discuss, so heres the latest breakdown. 

Storm #1 

Rain chances will increase on Monday night as our first system moves into the area. 2-4 inches of rain appear likely across much of the state, which would lead to flooding, especially in flood-prone and poor drainage areas. In addition to the flooding potential, another thing we will be closely monitoring is the severe weather potential. The best chance for severe storms will come Tuesday evening, just ahead of the cold front. The SPC has placed portions of South-Central Kentucky in a MARGINAL risk for severe weather, which means that Isolated Severe Thunderstorms are possible. 

Storm #2 

 After a brief dry period on Wednesday, our second system will move into the area beginning on Wednesday Night. While much uncertainty remains with this system, the data shows the best possibility of a wintry mix along and north of the Ohio River. 
Across southern and central Kentucky, the current thinking is that temperatures should remain warm enough for plain rain, with another 1-3 inches of rain likely. This would further increase the potential for flooding issues, especially on area rivers and streams.

Storm #3

The potential is there for another system to impact our area next weekend. This system would potentially bring more rain and snow to our area. This is obviously over a week away, so the details of how this system will evolve are unclear.   

 

The biggest threat that we have this week is the flooding potential. The latest forecast from the National Weather Service shows anywhere between 4-6 inches of rain falling across the state. We will always keep you up to date with all the latest weather information!

 

 

 

 

Heavy Rainfall Likely Next Week

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Happy Saturday, Folks! This weekend looks to be a nice one, with mostly sunny conditions expected and temperatures reaching the upper 30's today and the upper 50's tomorrow! Next week will be a very active weather week, with several systems moving through the state. The first system will move through the state late Monday through early Wednesday morning. Heavy rainfall and some storms are likely, with 2-3 inches of rainfall likely. We will experience a small break on Wednesday before the second system impacts the state Wednesday night through Friday. Heavy rainfall will be the main threat again, with ANOTHER 2-3 inches of rainfall likely. Wintry weather will be possible next week as well. Confidence in this is much lower than in heavy rain earlier in the week, but something to keep an eye on as the forecast evolves over the next several days. Below is the latest forecast from the National Weather Service, which shows 4-6 inches of rainfall possible this week! I'll be monitoring things closely this week, so stay weather aware! Have a good weekend! 

 

Monday-Friday Forecast Rainfall Totals 

 

Tuesday Night Update

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Good Wednesday night, folks. I am still tracking A strong system that will move across the region Thursday, bringing widespread rainfall gusty winds over 40-50 mph at times. Thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon and early evening. Some of the showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts and very isolated tornadoes. A few instances of flooding and isolated damaging wind gusts could accompany any thunderstorm activity on Thursday. The precipitation will end as a little bit of light snow late Thursday night. We will be keeping you up to date with all the latest information! Stay Weather Aware! 

Monday Night Update

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Good Monday night, folks! Love may be in the air today, but storms will be in the air later this week as I continue to track a potent storm system that will impact us on Wednesday Night into Thursday. This Storm System will bring widespread rainfall, gusty winds, and the possibility of a few severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Gusty winds will again be a concern, with sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with gusts to 40-45 MPH at times throughout the day. 
After the front moves through Thursday night, we`ll see temps crash quickly behind the front, with temps likely falling some 30 degrees over a 6 hour period. This may result in a period of light snow across portions of the region before precipitation ends; no accumulation is expected.

 

The Storm Prediction Center currently has the best chance for Severe Weather On Thursday to out south but based on the latest data, this will likely get extended closer to our area in later outlooks. I'll be monitoring all the latest data throughout the week; stay weather aware! 

 

SPC Severe Weather Outlook for Thursday 

Saturday Night Update

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Good Saturday night, everyone! Temperatures today are much colder than what we experienced on Friday. Some light snow showers or flurries are possible tonight and tomorrow, but I don't see any real threat for snow any time in the foreseeable future. We may have seen our last real, measurable snowfall of the season. However, it is still officially winter, and we have seen snow systems in the month of March numerous times, so we'll have to wait and see. Im watching a strong system will move across the region next Thursday, bringing the possibility of a few thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. On Thursday, the Storm Prediction Center has placed Kentucky's southwestern portions at risk for severe thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall could also become a threat, as some of the model data suggest 1-3 inches of rain over 12-18 hours. Stay tuned as the forecast changes over the coming days. Have a great weekend, folks! 

 

Storm Prediction Center Outlook on Thursday 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Heavy Rainfall Potential on Thursday 

 

Tuesday Weather Update

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Good Tuesday evening, everyone! I hope your week has been fantastic so far! Our stretch of excellent weather will continue for a few more days, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures reaching the middle to upper 50's! Im watching a sneaky system that will arrive over the weekend. As of right now, a cold front will move across the area on Saturday, which could bring a few light rain showers. Much of the moisture associated with this front will be behind it, which could cause some light snow accumulations across the state. Right now, this doesn't look like a huge deal, but IF it can get a low pressure to track along the front, this will be a different story. This looks unlikely as of right now, but I'll keep an eye on it! 

Here is what the models are showing as of this afternoon: 

GFS: 

CANADIAN: 

 

There is still a lot of questions with this system, but the chance for some light accumulating snow is there. I'll keep you updated on the latest, have a great evening! 

 

Big Dawg Weather

Today: Sunny, with a high near 28. Wind chill values as low as 8. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the morning.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 18. Calm wind.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 43. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph in the morning.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 22. Light south wind.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 42. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 17.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 41.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 26.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 49.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 45.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 26.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 47.
 


Winter Weather Advisory in effect, Ice Storm Warning Cancelled

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The National Weather Service has canceled the Ice Storm Warning previously in effect and issued a Winter Weather Advisory for much of the state. Luckily for most of us, the colder air took longer to progress throughout the state than initially anticipated, drastically cutting back on any Ice accumulation we could have received. Mixed-light precipitation is still expected tonight into Friday morning. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze could cause slippery road conditions. This Advisory will expire Friday at 9 AM CST/10 AM EST.

 

Tuesday Night Update

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Good Tuesday night, folks! We continue to track a significant winter storm that is locked in on the Ohio Valley. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for much of our area, and they will issue Warnings and advisories at some point tomorrow for much if not all of the state.  

 

Im still not confident in when things will changeover to frozen precipitation, but here is an approximate timeline: 

Tomorrow through tomorrow night: All rain, rainfall amounts between 1-2 inches are possible. 

Rainfall amounts of 2.75 to 3.5 inches are expected across the region with isolated higher amounts. 

This amount of rainfall is expected to create excessive runoff, resulting in localized flooding in some areas.

Thursday:  Arctic Front will slowly progress across the state from Northwest to Southeast, with temperatures dropping roughly 20-25 degrees. Rain will change over to Freezing Rain/Sleet throughout the day. 

Here is an approximate timeline of when the changeover to frozen precipitation would occur: 

Louisville: 7 AM-12 PM 

Lexington: 3PM-9PM 

Elizabethtown: 10 AM-3PM 

Campbellsville: 6 PM-10 PM

Bowling Green: 7 PM-11 PM

This is a very approximate timeline, and this WILL change. 

Thursday Night through early Friday morning: All precipitation changes to Freezing Rain, sleet, and some snow before gradually tapering off early Friday. 

 

How much are we expecting? That's a good question, as the data tonight continue to differ on where the heaviest amounts of Ice will fall. It all depends on the exact track and how fast the arctic air moves into the state. If it's faster, we can expect more Ice. If it's slower, we will see more rain and minimal wintry precipitation. 

Here is the latest model data for tonight. 

NAM Potential Ice Accumulation:

 

NAM 3K Potential Ice Accumulation:

 

RDPS Potential Ice Accumulation: 

 

GFS Potential Ice Accumulation: 

 

I am monitoring the latest information. In the meantime, here are some essential tips from Mark Jarvis, Lead Forecaster at NWS Louisville. 
Now is the time to activate your winter storm plan. Make sure you have your usual staples. Fill up the car, get meds, etc. There is the possibility of power outages, especially if we get into higher icing amounts. If using a generator, keep it outside! Travel will become just plain bad by late Thursday afternoon. Periods of impossible travel may develop Thursday evening in some areas.