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BIG DAWG WEATHER

Flood Watch In Effect

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Flood Watch has been issued, which is in effect through Monday evening. Thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rainfall, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Excessive runoff may flood rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. This may cause creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Stay up-to-date with the latest weather developments and be prepared to seek higher ground if flooding threatens.

Flood Watch Map 

 

 

 

Another Flood Watch in Effect

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Flood Watch in Effect from 8 AM EDT Friday through Friday Evening. Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible on Friday. Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms that repeatedly move over the same areas could easily produce localized swaths of higher rainfall totals.

 

Flood Watch Now in Effect

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Flood Watch is now in effect from Sunday Morning through Monday Morning. Excessive runoff may flood rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected across the watch area. Rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour will be possible and bring a flash flood threat to central and southern Kentucky Sunday and Sunday night portions. Areas that see repeated rounds of thunderstorm activity will be most susceptible to flash flooding. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Flooding Threat Set to Increase Again

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Good Friday Afternoon, Folks! Parts of Eastern Kentucky have witnessed historic flooding over the past few days, and they are still on guard for additional flooding today through Tuesday. Most of the state will see the flood threat increase again, beginning Saturday night Through Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in intensity on Sunday. Multiple rounds of persistent heavy rainfall could cause isolated flooding concerns. WKYT in Lexington has highlighted much of Central and Southern Kentucky for the highest Flooding threat Sunday through Tuesday! We will keep you updated over the weekend, but it's important to stay weather aware, especially if you live in flood-prone or poor drainage areas! 

Flash Flood Threat from WKYT 

 

 

Hot Weekend on the Way

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Good Afternoon, Folks! Well-above normal temperatures are expected Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures will approach 100 degrees both days, with maximum heat indices likely to exceed 105 degrees. Prolonged exposure to this level of heat can pose health dangers, including heat exhaustion and heat stroke. If possible, limit time spent outdoors these days, and be sure to remain hydrated at all times.

Heat Wave with Severe Storm Threat

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Thunderstorms will be possible for much of this week, especially in the afternoon and evening. The main threats will be torrential rainfall, locally gusty winds, and lightning. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for severe weather tomorrow and a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for Wednesday. In addition to the storm chances, a combination of heat and humidity will create heat indices rising above 100 degrees, mainly from Tuesday through Thursday. As always, we will be watching things closely here in the Big Dawg Weather Center and will keep you updated with the latest. 

SPC Severe Weather Outlook for Tuesday    

SPC Severe Weather Outlook for Wednesday 

Drought Information 

Rainfall Potential Next 84 Hours 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rain Likely Later Today

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Scattered thunderstorms are likely later today and tonight ahead of a cold front. Gusty winds, cloud-to-ground lightning, and brief heavy rainfall would be the main threats. Storms will be most active from 3 pm to midnight, especially south of I 64, with the most concentrated area south of the Blue Grass Parkway. Hopefully, mother nature will give us some much-needed rain; the GFS model shows the most concentrated rainfall in Southeastern Kentucky but also gives parts of central Kentucky at least some rain. 

GFS MODEL 

A very unsettled period of weather is expected Friday and Saturday. Scattered showers and storms are expected. Some of these will contain heavy rainfall. With next weekend being a holiday, I will monitor the latest forecast for you! Have an excellent Sunday, folks! 

Rain Chances Increasing

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Good Friday Afternoon, Folks! Scattered thunderstorms are expected later Saturday and Sunday into Sunday night ahead of a cold front. Some of these storms late on Sunday could be strong to severe. Gusty winds, cloud-to-ground lightning, and brief heavy rainfall would be the main threats. 

U.S. Drought Monitor

Looking at the U.S. Drought Monitor, much of the central and eastern portions of the state are abnormally dry, with parts of Central Kentucky already in a moderate drought. We need the rain, and much of the data shows some decent rainfall totals. 

GFS

EURO

Fingers crossed that we receive some much-needed rain this weekend. As always, I'll be monitoring our severe weather potential! Take care, and have a great weekend, folks! 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dangerous Heat Expected This Week

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Good Sunday Afternoon, Folks! A few thunderstorms will be possible late tonight. Gusty winds and lightning will be the main threats if storms develop. Beginning tomorrow, hot afternoon temperatures in the 90s and increasing humidity will yield heat index values above 100 degrees by the early to mid-week time frame. In addition, a few strong to severe storms are possible Monday. Damaging wind or large hail will be the main threats if storms develop. With dangerous heat expected this week, below are some heat saftey tips! Now is the time to prepare for extreme heat. Check on your friends, family, and neighbors, especially the elderly. Make sure to know the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke and know what actions to take. Together, we can all stay safe!

 

Alert Day Issued for Wednesday

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Good Tuesday evening, Folks! Rounds of showers and storms will continue to impact our area for much of the week. Some isolated storms are possible this evening into tonight, but a better chance for strong to severe storms arrives tomorrow through tomorrow night. The main threat with any storm will be damaging winds and small hail. Heavy rainfall is also a concern, especially in areas that received several inches of rain last night. Flash Flooding is also a concern in flood-prone and poor drainage areas. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire state in a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow, which means scattered severe storms are possible.  

Ill keep you updated, stay weather aware throughout the day tomorrow! 

 

Rounds of Storms Expected this Week

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Good Sunday afternoon, Folks! Were looking at a stormy setup for the week, with thunderstorms, some strong to severe, occurring Monday afternoon into the overnight period. Damaging winds are the main threat, though an isolated tornado and/or small hail can not be ruled out. Localized flooding also is possible in areas that see persistent storminess late Monday night. Additional storms are forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday. A few of these storms could become strong to severe on Wednesday, with gusty winds and small hail as the main threats.

Heavy rainfall is a good bet with the southern half of the state seeing the best chance for heavier rain. Below is the WPC rainfall forecast over the next 5 days, areas in the darker purple and red could see between 2-3 inches of rain this week. I'll keep you updated on the latest! Have a great week, folks! 

 

Strong Storms/Heavy Rain Possible Thursday and Friday

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Good Evening, folks! Tonight, scattered thunderstorms could become strong, with locally damaging wind gusts as the main hazard. Lightning and hail are also possible; however, im expecting this to be a shallow threat. Thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday, and heavy rain could result in localized flooding in locations with repeated rainfall. Locally damaging winds and hail will also be possible in stronger storms. Showers and thunderstorms will continue into Friday; again, some strong storms with localized heavy rainfall are possible. The SPC has placed our area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather tonight and tomorrow, the lowest severe weather risk. This means that Isolated severe storms are possible but are limited in duration and intensity. 

The holiday weekend looks very lovely, with sunny conditions expected on Saturday (High 74), Sunday(High 82), and Monday(High 87). 

Have a great night, everyone! 

2 Tornadoes Confirmed in Larue County

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A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURVEY TEAM IN COORDINATION WITH 
LARUE COUNTY EMERGERGENCY MANAGEMENT SURVEYED DAMAGE IN SOUTHERN 
LARUE COUNTY FROM STORMS THAT OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT WAS 
DETERMINED THAT A BRIEF EF-1 TORNADO THAT WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN A 
LARGER AREA OF STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS TOUCHED DOWN 1.3 MILES SOUTHEAST 
OF UPTON, TRAVELED EAST FOR JUST OVER 2.5 MILES, AND THEN LIFTED 3 
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF UPTON. THE EF-1 TORNADO HAD A MAX WIND OF 
AROUND 100 MPH, AND A MAX PATH WIDTH OF AROUND 200 YARDS.

THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN AT SOLID EF-1 STRENGTH JUST NORTHWEST OF 
THE INTERSECTION OF WELDON LOOP ROAD AND WATKINS ALVEY ROAD WHERE A 
SMALL BARN WAS COMPLETELY DESTROYED, AND DEBRIS WAS SCATTERED IN 
MANY DIRECTIONS ALMOST A HALF-MILE TO THE NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION, A 
SMALL LEAN-TO SECTION OF ANOTHER BARN WAS THROWN BACK TO THE 
NORTHWEST, CLEAR EVIDENCE OF CYCLONIC ROTATION. HARDWOOD TREES JUST 
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE BARN WERE ALSO SNAPPED AND LAYING IN A 
CONVERGENT PATTERN, OFFERING MORE SUPPORT FOR TORNADIC WINDS.

THE TORNADO CONTINUED ROUGHLY EASTWARD ALONG WELDON LOOP ROAD WHERE 
IT DID SOME LIGHT DAMAGE TO A BARN ROOF AND BROUGHT DOWN LARGE LIMBS 
FROM A HARDWOOD TREE. THIS DAMAGE OCCURRED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF 
JOHNSON ROAD AND WELDON LOOP ROAD, AND WAS IN THE EF-0 STRENGTH 
RANGE. THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO THE ENE ALONG WELDON LOOP ROAD AT EF-
0 STRENGTH AS IT CAUSED MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO A HOUSE, AND DAMAGED A 
GREENHOUSE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF WHEELER AND WHELDON LOOP ROADS. 
THE TORNADO FINISHED THE LAST HALF MILE OF ITS PATH ALONG UPTON 
TALLEY ROAD WHERE IT UPROOTED OR SNAPPED SOFTWOOD TREES, DAMAGED 
BARNS, AND DID MINOR FASCIA AND SHINGLE DAMAGE TO A COUPLE OF HOMES. 
THE TORNADO LIFTED ABOUT A QUARTER MILE PAST THE UPTON TALLEY AND 
LANNY HEATH ROADS INTERSECTION.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS BRIEF TORNADO OCCURRED WITHIN A LARGER 
AREA OF STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE WHERE SOME OLDER BARNS WERE 
DESTROYED AND NUMEROUS SOFTWOOD AND HARDWOOD TREES WERE SNAPPED OR 
UPROOTED. HOWEVER, THE DAMAGE WAS MAINLY LAYING IN AN EAST-NORTHEAST 
DIRECTION CONSISTENT WITH OVERALL STORM MOTION AND A STRAIGHT-LINE 
WIND SIGNATURE. IT WAS CONSIDERED TO MAKE THIS DAMAGE PART OF THE 
OVERALL TORNADO, HOWEVER THE PATH WIDTH WOULD HAVE BEEN OVER A HALF 
MILE WIDE, WHICH IS UNLIKELY FOR BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADOES EMBEDDED IN 
A QLCS.

IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT MORE SPORADIC, AND OVERALL WEAKER, 
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE CONTINUED EASTWARD ALONG A CONSISTENT PATH 
ACROSS SOUTHERN LARUE COUNTY. MOST OF THIS DAMAGE WAS CONSISTENT 
WITH WINDS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH TOWARD AND JUST NORTH OF THE 
MAGNOLIA COMMUNITY AND POINTS EASTWARD. A SECOND EF-0 TORNADO DID 
TOUCH DOWN NEAR MOUNT TABOR AND POINTS EASTWARD AND IS COVERED IN 
ANOTHER PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ALREADY ISSUED. (Other Survey Summery Below) 

First Tornado: 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE IN COORDINATION WITH 
LARUE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED AN EF0 TORNADO IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL LARUE COUNTY. THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST WEST OF LOGAN 
DESPAIN ROAD, CAUSING DAMAGE TO THE METAL ROOF OF A FARM 
OUTBUILDING, AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF A LEAN-TO ATTACHMENT ON THE 
SIDE OF THE SAME FARM OUTBUILDING. THE TORNADO THEN CROSSED 
GREENSBURG ROAD NEAR BROWNFIELD CREEK, HEADING TOWARDS MOUNT TABOR 
ROAD. ONE HOME ON MOUNT TABOR ROAD SUFFERED MINOR ROOF DAMAGE, AND 
THE HOME ACROSS THE ROAD HAD SEVERAL HEALTHY PINE TREES SNAPPED AS 
THE TORNADO CONTINUED ON ITS PATH. THE TORNADO CONTINUED EAST-
NORTHEAST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF MOUNT TABOR ROAD, CAUSING SEVERAL 
HARDWOOD TREES TO FALL IN THE DIRECTIONS OF NORTH OR NORTHEAST. 
CYCLONIC CURVATURE OF THE FALLEN TREES WAS MADE EVIDENT WHEN NWS 
LOUISVILLE FLEW THEIR DRONE OVER THAT AREA. SOME ROOF DAMAGE AND 
BARN DOOR DAMAGE OCCURRED ABOUT 450 YARDS WEST OF THE INTERSECTION 
OF MOUNT TABOR ROAD AND BENNETT ROAD. THE TORNADO CONTINUED JUST 
NORTH OF MOUNT TABOR BAPTIST CHURCH AND CROSSED MOUNT TABOR ROAD 
ONCE AGAIN ABOUT 175 YARDS NORTH OF BENNETT ROAD. WHEN DOING SO, THE 
EF0 TORNADO CAUSED SOFTWOOD TREE DAMAGE AND LIFTED AND DESTROYED A 
CARPORT. THE TORNADO THEN CONTINUED TOWARDS HINTON'S ORCHARD AND 
FARM MARKET. THE ORCHARD HAD PARTIAL LOSS OF ITS METAL ROOF ON THE 
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BUILDING. THE PROPERTY ALSO HAS SEVERAL 
GREENHOUSES DAMAGED. THE TORNADO THEN CROSSED CAMPBELLSVILLE ROAD 
AND DISSIPATED A SHORT DISTANCE LATER. WINDS WERE CONSISTENTLY 
ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 75-85 MPH ALONG THE DAMAGE PATH. 
EF SCALE:  THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE 
FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0...WEAK.....65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK.....86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG...111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG...136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT..166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT..>200 MPH

NOTE:  THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT 
TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NWS 
STORM DATA.

Severe Weather Threat Wednesday

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A threat of strong to severe thunderstorms increases over the area Wednesday evening into the overnight hours. At this time, the highest threat of severe weather stretches along and west of the I-65 corridor from through central Kentucky. Straight-line damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be the main threats, with severe storms for Central and Eastern Kentucky. The biggest question is how fast these storms will move in, and how much energy will be available for them once they arrive. This will significantly affect how intense storms will be in our area. Please stay weather aware throughout the day tomorrow; we will be tracking it every second! Below are the latest slides/Info from the SPC/NWS:

Bottom Line

  • Gusty winds of 30-40 mph Wednesday afternoon
  • Strong to severe storms expected Wednesday evening into the overnight hours
  • Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are the main threats, although large hail and localized flash flooding are possible

SPC Outlook 

 

TIMING 

 

 

 

 

 

Severe Weather Likely Wednesday

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Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday afternoon and could become strong to severe. However, a more significant threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will be seen across the outlook area on Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours. Our biggest question mark will be the availability of instability (energy) when the line arrives. At this time, the highest risk of severe weather is in  Western Ky, and west of I-65 in central Kentucky, as instability will be highest there. The main threat with
strong/severe storms will be straight-line winds, with the potential for an isolated embedded spin-up tornado within the line. 

Bottom Line: 

  • A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to develop in advance of the cold front.
  • Damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes will be possible will be possible with these storms.
  • Isolated severe storms possible Wednesday afternoon, but more widespread severe potential between 8pm EDT and 4 am EDT
  • Stay tuned, as there is still some uncertainy with this system 

 

SPC OUTLOOK: 

 

 

Severe Weather Possible Wednesday

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Multiple rounds of showers and storms are possible through Wednesday night. The best chances for storms will be Monday night and Wednesday into Wednesday night. A few storms on Monday night could produce locally heavy rainfall and some hail, and strong to severe storms are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night. The main hazard Wednesday and Wednesday night will be damaging winds, but all severe weather modes are possible. Wednesday has my attention, and I think it is the most significant severe weather threat we have seen this year. Right now, I think the higher threat lies across the western part of the state, which is some good news for us locally. The current forecast is for a line of strong to severe storms to push across the state, but as we progress into Wednesday night, this line will begin to weaken. When this weakening starts will have a significant effect on how intense the storms will be when they arrive in central Kentucky. All interests should stay updated on the forecast as we iron out the details.

Wednesday SPC Outlook 

 

 

Snowflakes Possible Friday and Saturday

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Unseasonably cold weather is expected Friday night through Saturday night, with a few snow showers possible late Friday night into Saturday morning. Some slushy accumulation is possible, but nothing significant is expected. A freeze is likely Sunday morning before temperatures rise into the middle 60's on Sunday. Temperatures next week will jump into the 70's, with strong/severe storms possible. We will keep you updated as needed! 

Future Radar Saturday Morning 

 

 

 

Strong/Severe Storms Expected Tomorrow

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HIGH WINDS
Very gusty winds and the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms will arrive Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening ahead of a strong cold front. Wind gusts Wednesday afternoon will be
45-55 mph ahead of the evening showers and storms. There is also an enhanced fire danger for locations east of I-65 tomorrow afternoon. Strong winds, dry fuels, and low relative humidity will make for challenging conditions to control any outdoor burning.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
Showers and embedded thunderstorms will potentially have locally enhanced wind gusts and a brief spin-up tornado Wednesday evening. Storms are expected to be in the central Kentucky area between 8-11 PM EST. The SPC has placed the entire area in aq SLIGHT risk for severe weather, which means scattered severe storms are possible. This could get upgraded based on how tomorrow plays out. I will be monitoring things closely, and I will provide LIVE severe weather coverage if severe storms break out.  
SPC OUTLOOK 

 

Strong/Severe Storms Possible Wednesday

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Good Sunday Evening, Folks! I am monitoring the potential for very gusty winds and strong or severe thunderstorms on Wednesday into early Thursday morning ahead of a strong cold front. Wind fields are more than sufficient for organized severe weather, and the pattern also favors it. However, there is some uncertainty in how much energy these storms have to work with. For now, the SPC Outlook remains to the south and west of our region, where the most significant threat is expected to be, but I still expect central Kentucky to be placed in some type of severe risk in later outlooks. Damaging winds with brief spin-up tornadoes are the main threats right now. I will monitor this system this week and give updates as needed! Stay tuned! 

SPC OUTLOOK   

 

 

Tuesday Afternoon Update

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Good Afternoon, Folks! Widespread showers/storms are expected across the region tonight. Some rain could be heavy at times, but no severe weather is expected! Another weather system will bring a period of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall to the area into Wednesday. This may result in some localized flooding and elevated river levels during the midweek timeframe. A few strong storms will be possible Wednesday with gusty winds, cloud-to-ground lightning, and brief heavy rainfall. The SPC has placed most of the area in a Marginal risk for severe weather tomorrow, which means Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible but are limited in coverage, intensity, or duration. We will keep you updated if any severe weather breaks out! Have a great night! 

Winter Storm Threat Friday Night/Saturday Morning

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Crashing temperatures behind a strong cold front will bring a change from rain to snow over the region Friday night into Saturday. Snow accumulations between 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts, are likely through Saturday morning, along with well below average temperatures and low wind chills through Saturday night. Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Watches are in effect for the entire area. 

WEATHER ALERTS 

TIMING 

NWS ACCUMULATION MAP 

NAM Accumulation Map 

CANADIAN Accumulation Map

HRRR Accumulation Map

Wednesday Night Update

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Good Wednesday Evening, Folks. Crashing temperatures behind a strong cold front will bring a change from rain to snow over the region Friday night into Saturday. Accumulating snow is likely through Saturday morning, along with well below normal temperatures and low wind chills through Saturday night. Below are some key messages regarding this weekends system: 

  • Travel impacts are likely Friday night and Saturday morning, and significant impacts due to heavy snow are possible.
  • Higher snow accumulations likely east of I-65, with the heaviest snow near and east of I-75.
  • Very cold temperatures are likely following the snow over the weekend.
  • Confidence has increased in travel impacts due to accumulating snow Friday night through Saturday.

Tonight's data has increased snowfall accumulations across our area, and The NWS will likely issue a Winter Storm Watch at some point tomorrow if this trend continues. Below is tonight's data so far; please pay close attention to the forecast, as changes will occur. Have a fantastic night, folks! 

NAM Model 

CANADIAN Model 

GFS Model 

Weekend Snow Increasing

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Good Tuesday evening, folks! A storm system will likely bring wintry weather to the region Friday night into Saturday morning, increasing the chances of accumulating snow. There is still a good amount of uncertainty with this system. Therefore, there is no confidence on exact timing and potential snowfall amounts right now. Continue to check the latest forecasts, as things will change throughout the week. Below are the newest snowfall accumulation forecasts from various computer models. Stay tuned!  

EURO 

NAM (The NAM only goes through 84 hours, so this map is only sjowing half the storm) 

GFS 

 

 

 

Wintry Mischief This Weekend?

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Good Monday Evening, Folks. We are much calmer tonight after an active weather morning, with temperatures around 40 degrees. We are looking at another rain chance tomorrow night; otherwise, I expect a quiet week with high temperatures in the 50s. Im watching a system that could bring significant winter precipitation to the region on Friday night into Saturday. At this time, there is good agreement in a large cooldown from the middle 60s on Friday to the lower 20s on Friday night. There is also reasonable agreement in the data that widespread precipitation will be likely during the same period. We don't know how strong this system will be, what its exact track will be, and how much moisture will still be around once temperatures drop below freezing. Regardless, everyone in the state of Kentucky should monitor the latest forecasts, as almost all the data is signaling for significant winter weather this weekend. Nothing is set in stone just yet, and things WILL change, so stay tuned to us for the latest! 

GFS Simulated Radar 

EURO Simulated Radar

Active Sunday Expected

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Good Sunday morning, folks. A frontal boundary will stall across central Kentucky today. Showers and storms will develop and train along this boundary, resulting in heavy rain and potential flash flooding periods. A strong gusty shower or storm could also develop this afternoon. The National Weather Service Service has issued a Flood Watch for the areas they believe has the most significant potential for flash flooding.

We are also looking at a severe weather threat this afternoon and early tomorrow morning. Damaging winds are the main threat, but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. The SPC has placed much of the state in a SLIGHT risk for severe weather, which means scattered severe storms are possible.  

Stay weather aware today, we'll keep you updated on the latest!