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BIG DAWG WEATHER Archives for 2022-01

Monday Night Update

A-Plus Comfort Care presents the Big Dawg Weather Blog! For experienced care for your heat & air, give them a call at (270) 932-7421

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good Monday night, everyone! I continue to track a very powerful storm system that will begin to impact our region Tomorrow night as rain, with a wintry mess possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. 

Here is the approximate timeframe that we are looking at, and this timeline will become more evident during the day tomorrow and Wednesday. 

Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: Rain moves into the region, with temperatures rising into the 50's. Rainfall amounts of 2.75 to 3.5 inches are expected across the region with isolated higher amounts. 

This amount of rainfall is expected to create excessive runoff, resulting in localized flooding in some areas.

Thursday: Arctic Front will slowly progress across the state from Northwest to Southeast, with temperatures dropping roughly 20-25 degrees. Rain will change over to Freezing Rain/Sleet throughout the day. As of this post, central Kentucky would likely change over to freezing rain during the afternoon/evening hours on Thursday. 

Thursday Night through early Friday morning: All precipitation changes to Freezing Rain, sleet, and some snow. 

 

Tonight's data has some agreement to it, but some questions still need to be answered. The biggest question is how fast will this arctic air move in. If it's slower, we will be looking at more rain and less freezing rain. If the arctic air is faster, we'll be looking at more freezing rain across central Kentucky. This will not be a heavy snowmaker for our area. The heavy snow is expected to stay well to the north.

NOTICE: Now is the time to pay attention. Nothing is set in stone, but central Kentucky is being threatened by what could be a very significant Ice storm, and this doesn't need to be taken lightly. I will be tracking this storm every step of the way. 

 

Here is the latest model data for tonight. The only piece I haven't seen is the EURO, and it will update in a few hours. 

 

NAM Potential Ice Accumulation: 

RDPS Potential Ice Accumulation: 

GFS Potential Ice Accumulation: 

GDPS Potential Ice Accumulation:

 

 

The next 24 hours will be vital in figuring out how this system plays out, so pay attention to the latest forecasts and prepare for this potential Ice Storm! 

 

Be sure you are following me! 

Facebook: Corey Lynn Houk

Twitter: 2khoukwx

Tracking a Potential Big Storm

A-Plus Comfort Care presents the Big Dawg Weather Blog! For experienced care for your heat & air, give them a call at (270) 932-7421

 

 

 

 

 

Good Sunday night, everyone! I am continuing to track a powerful storm system that will bring substantial amounts of wintry precipitation to someone in the Ohio Valley. Heavy rain, Freezing rain, sleet, and some snow are all possible before the week is over. 

Here is the approximate timeframe that we are looking at: 

Wednesday: Rain moves into the region, with temperatures rising into the 50's. Temperatures slowly drop throughout the state as we head into Wednesday night. 

Thursday: Arctic Front will slowly progress across the state, with temperatures dropping roughly 20 degrees. The biggest question is how fast this front moves through the state. Heavy rain is likely south of the front, while Freezing rain and sleet are expected north of the front. 

Thursday Night: Arctic air will push through the entire state, changing any rain to freezing rain/sleet with some snow. 

 

Tonight's data, as expected, is still all over the place. I am confident that this storm isn't going to be a snowmaker for our area. The heavy snow is expected to stay well north, with our location in the battleground for heavy rain VS freezing rain/sleet.

 

Here is the latest model data for tonight. The Canadian and GFS have updated, and the EURO will update in a few hours. The NAM model can only see out to 84 hours, so it can't see the entire storm yet, but It will be able to tomorrow. 

 

GFS: 

Potential Snowfall Output 

Potential Ice Accumulation: 

 

CANADIAN: 

Potential Snow Accumulation: 

 

Potential Ice Accumulation: 

 


As you can see, our chances for significant snow are minimal, but our chances at a significant icing event are higher. Many questions still need to be answered, and I won't have those answers for a few more days. Models have a terrible time forecasting these arctic boundaries, and they do set up farther south due to the model's inability to handle dense arctic air. 

As for now, pay attention to the latest forecast; everything is on the table, from a significant Ice Storm to just a plain heavy rain event. I'll be watching closely; stay tuned! 

 

 

 

 

 

Light Snow Chance Increasing

A-Plus Comfort Care presents the Big Dawg Weather Blog! For experienced care for your heat & air, give them a call at (270) 932-7421

 

 

 

 

Good Tuesday evening, folks! Not a whole lot going on in the weather department over the next few days other than another reinforcing shot of cold air that will send wind chills into the lower single digits tonight.

 

 

Toward the end of the week, the potential for light snow appears to be increasing. How much snow we receive will depend on the low-pressure track and how strong the system is. Regardless, light snow showers appear likely during the day on Friday and into Friday night. Temperatures will drop into the teens yet again Friday night, so a light dusting up to 1 inch appear possible. Here are a few of the model runs below: 

 GFS MODEL: 

 

NAM MODEL: 

 

In conclusion, light snow appears likely on Friday, but this won't be an event that will cause significant issues. As always, I will keep you updated on all the latest information. Stay tuned! 

 

 

 

Sunday Weather Update

A-Plus Comfort Care presents the Big Dawg Weather Blog! For experienced care for your heat & air, give them a call at (270) 932-7421

 

 

 

 

Good Sunday Morning, everyone! There isn't a whole lot of action in the weather department right now, but after the past six weeks of weather that we have had here in central Kentucky, I think we can all agree that some calm weather is okay. 
Today, a few light snow showers will be possible, but this will mainly be for parts of northern Kentucky. Im also watching a system for Monday night and Tuesday. This system doesn't look like a big deal either, but some rain changing to light snow is possible, maybe a dusting of accumulation. 

Futurecast Radar Image for Monday Night/Tuesday: 

 

Outside of our slight chance for rain/snow on Monday/Tuesday, expect mostly sunny conditions this week, with temperatures in the upper 30's to lower 40's. 

 

Looking Ahead: 

Looking even further down the road toward the end of next week, it appears that we will see another big dip in the jet stream, which would bring colder air to our area once again. If we can get a system to track through our area, we would have to watch for accumulating snow. 

I'll keep you updated on all the changes, enjoy the week! 

-Corey Houk 

 

 

 

 

Winter Weather Advisory in Effect

A-Plus Comfort Care presents the Big Dawg Weather Blog! For experienced care for your heat & air, give them a call at (270) 932-7421

 

 

 

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for much of our listening area. Barren, Metcalfe, Adair, and Russell Counties will likely be added to the Winter Weather Advisory later tonight or tomorrow.  

Light rain during the day Wednesday will transition to snow sometime around sunset tomorrow evening and continue throughout the night, tapering off by sunrise Thursday. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected by Thursday morning. In addition to the snow, temperatures will rapidly fall to around 20 degrees during the overnight period causing any wet untreated surfaces to freeze quickly. Travel will become extremely difficult during Wednesday night and Thursday morning. 

 

We will be watching things closely for you; stay tuned for updates! 


 

 

Big Dawg Country Weather

Today: Rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 2pm, then snow and sleet, possibly mixed with rain between 2pm and 3pm, then snow after 3pm. High near 33. Northeast wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. Total daytime snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tonight: Snow, mainly before 9pm. Low around 25. West wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

M.L.King Day: A chance of snow before 9am, then a chance of flurries between 9am and 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. West wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 22. West wind 3 to 7 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 44. Light southwest wind becoming south 5 to 9 mph in the morning.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 33.

Wednesday: Showers, mainly after 1pm. High near 45. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Wednesday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers before 10pm, then a chance of snow showers between 10pm and 1am, then a chance of flurries after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 31.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 16.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 30.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 16.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 35.
 

Big Dawg Weather

Today: Sunny, with a high near 38. Light and variable wind becoming east around 6 mph in the morning.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 27. South wind 3 to 7 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 48. Southwest wind 7 to 13 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Southwest wind around 6 mph.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 45. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming west in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 42.

Friday Night: A 40 percent chance of snow showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.

Saturday: Snow showers likely before 11am, then rain and snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 36.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 23.

M.L.King Day: Partly sunny, with a high near 39.