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BIG DAWG WEATHER Archives for 2022-03

Strong/Severe Storms Expected Tomorrow

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HIGH WINDS
Very gusty winds and the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms will arrive Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening ahead of a strong cold front. Wind gusts Wednesday afternoon will be
45-55 mph ahead of the evening showers and storms. There is also an enhanced fire danger for locations east of I-65 tomorrow afternoon. Strong winds, dry fuels, and low relative humidity will make for challenging conditions to control any outdoor burning.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
Showers and embedded thunderstorms will potentially have locally enhanced wind gusts and a brief spin-up tornado Wednesday evening. Storms are expected to be in the central Kentucky area between 8-11 PM EST. The SPC has placed the entire area in aq SLIGHT risk for severe weather, which means scattered severe storms are possible. This could get upgraded based on how tomorrow plays out. I will be monitoring things closely, and I will provide LIVE severe weather coverage if severe storms break out.  
SPC OUTLOOK 

 

Strong/Severe Storms Possible Wednesday

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Good Sunday Evening, Folks! I am monitoring the potential for very gusty winds and strong or severe thunderstorms on Wednesday into early Thursday morning ahead of a strong cold front. Wind fields are more than sufficient for organized severe weather, and the pattern also favors it. However, there is some uncertainty in how much energy these storms have to work with. For now, the SPC Outlook remains to the south and west of our region, where the most significant threat is expected to be, but I still expect central Kentucky to be placed in some type of severe risk in later outlooks. Damaging winds with brief spin-up tornadoes are the main threats right now. I will monitor this system this week and give updates as needed! Stay tuned! 

SPC OUTLOOK   

 

 

Tuesday Afternoon Update

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Good Afternoon, Folks! Widespread showers/storms are expected across the region tonight. Some rain could be heavy at times, but no severe weather is expected! Another weather system will bring a period of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall to the area into Wednesday. This may result in some localized flooding and elevated river levels during the midweek timeframe. A few strong storms will be possible Wednesday with gusty winds, cloud-to-ground lightning, and brief heavy rainfall. The SPC has placed most of the area in a Marginal risk for severe weather tomorrow, which means Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible but are limited in coverage, intensity, or duration. We will keep you updated if any severe weather breaks out! Have a great night! 

Winter Storm Threat Friday Night/Saturday Morning

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Crashing temperatures behind a strong cold front will bring a change from rain to snow over the region Friday night into Saturday. Snow accumulations between 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts, are likely through Saturday morning, along with well below average temperatures and low wind chills through Saturday night. Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Watches are in effect for the entire area. 

WEATHER ALERTS 

TIMING 

NWS ACCUMULATION MAP 

NAM Accumulation Map 

CANADIAN Accumulation Map

HRRR Accumulation Map

Wednesday Night Update

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Good Wednesday Evening, Folks. Crashing temperatures behind a strong cold front will bring a change from rain to snow over the region Friday night into Saturday. Accumulating snow is likely through Saturday morning, along with well below normal temperatures and low wind chills through Saturday night. Below are some key messages regarding this weekends system: 

  • Travel impacts are likely Friday night and Saturday morning, and significant impacts due to heavy snow are possible.
  • Higher snow accumulations likely east of I-65, with the heaviest snow near and east of I-75.
  • Very cold temperatures are likely following the snow over the weekend.
  • Confidence has increased in travel impacts due to accumulating snow Friday night through Saturday.

Tonight's data has increased snowfall accumulations across our area, and The NWS will likely issue a Winter Storm Watch at some point tomorrow if this trend continues. Below is tonight's data so far; please pay close attention to the forecast, as changes will occur. Have a fantastic night, folks! 

NAM Model 

CANADIAN Model 

GFS Model 

Weekend Snow Increasing

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Good Tuesday evening, folks! A storm system will likely bring wintry weather to the region Friday night into Saturday morning, increasing the chances of accumulating snow. There is still a good amount of uncertainty with this system. Therefore, there is no confidence on exact timing and potential snowfall amounts right now. Continue to check the latest forecasts, as things will change throughout the week. Below are the newest snowfall accumulation forecasts from various computer models. Stay tuned!  

EURO 

NAM (The NAM only goes through 84 hours, so this map is only sjowing half the storm) 

GFS 

 

 

 

Wintry Mischief This Weekend?

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Good Monday Evening, Folks. We are much calmer tonight after an active weather morning, with temperatures around 40 degrees. We are looking at another rain chance tomorrow night; otherwise, I expect a quiet week with high temperatures in the 50s. Im watching a system that could bring significant winter precipitation to the region on Friday night into Saturday. At this time, there is good agreement in a large cooldown from the middle 60s on Friday to the lower 20s on Friday night. There is also reasonable agreement in the data that widespread precipitation will be likely during the same period. We don't know how strong this system will be, what its exact track will be, and how much moisture will still be around once temperatures drop below freezing. Regardless, everyone in the state of Kentucky should monitor the latest forecasts, as almost all the data is signaling for significant winter weather this weekend. Nothing is set in stone just yet, and things WILL change, so stay tuned to us for the latest! 

GFS Simulated Radar 

EURO Simulated Radar

Active Sunday Expected

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Good Sunday morning, folks. A frontal boundary will stall across central Kentucky today. Showers and storms will develop and train along this boundary, resulting in heavy rain and potential flash flooding periods. A strong gusty shower or storm could also develop this afternoon. The National Weather Service Service has issued a Flood Watch for the areas they believe has the most significant potential for flash flooding.

We are also looking at a severe weather threat this afternoon and early tomorrow morning. Damaging winds are the main threat, but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. The SPC has placed much of the state in a SLIGHT risk for severe weather, which means scattered severe storms are possible.  

Stay weather aware today, we'll keep you updated on the latest!

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