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Good Tuesday night, folks! We continue to track a significant winter storm that is locked in on the Ohio Valley. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for much of our area, and they will issue Warnings and advisories at some point tomorrow for much if not all of the state.
Im still not confident in when things will changeover to frozen precipitation, but here is an approximate timeline:
Tomorrow through tomorrow night: All rain, rainfall amounts between 1-2 inches are possible.
Rainfall amounts of 2.75 to 3.5 inches are expected across the region with isolated higher amounts.
This amount of rainfall is expected to create excessive runoff, resulting in localized flooding in some areas.
Thursday: Arctic Front will slowly progress across the state from Northwest to Southeast, with temperatures dropping roughly 20-25 degrees. Rain will change over to Freezing Rain/Sleet throughout the day.
Here is an approximate timeline of when the changeover to frozen precipitation would occur:
Louisville: 7 AM-12 PM
Elizabethtown: 10 AM-3PM
Campbellsville: 6 PM-10 PM
Bowling Green: 7 PM-11 PM
This is a very approximate timeline, and this WILL change.
Thursday Night through early Friday morning: All precipitation changes to Freezing Rain, sleet, and some snow before gradually tapering off early Friday.
How much are we expecting? That's a good question, as the data tonight continue to differ on where the heaviest amounts of Ice will fall. It all depends on the exact track and how fast the arctic air moves into the state. If it's faster, we can expect more Ice. If it's slower, we will see more rain and minimal wintry precipitation.
Here is the latest model data for tonight.
NAM Potential Ice Accumulation:
NAM 3K Potential Ice Accumulation:
RDPS Potential Ice Accumulation:
GFS Potential Ice Accumulation:
I am monitoring the latest information. In the meantime, here are some essential tips from Mark Jarvis, Lead Forecaster at NWS Louisville.
Now is the time to activate your winter storm plan. Make sure you have your usual staples. Fill up the car, get meds, etc. There is the possibility of power outages, especially if we get into higher icing amounts. If using a generator, keep it outside! Travel will become just plain bad by late Thursday afternoon. Periods of impossible travel may develop Thursday evening in some areas.