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BIG DAWG WEATHER Archives for 2022-12

Winter Storm Potential Increasing

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Good Sunday Evening, Folks! We continue to track a strong weather system that will impact the region Thursday and into the holiday weekend. Here is the breakdown 

  • Accumulating snow likely Thursday night and into Friday morning. (Amounts to be determined) 
  • Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills expected for Friday and Saturday mornings.
  • Wind chills of -10 to -20 will be possible Friday and Saturday mornings. 
  • Wind gusts of 45-50 mph will be possible late Thursday night and Friday morning.

DANGEROUS COLD

One thing I want us to keep track of is the dangerously cold temperatures heading our way. Low Temperatures Fri and Sat will be at or approaching 0, with wind chills -10 to -20. This is very dangerous, and if you know anyone in the area who may struggle to keep warm, now would be the time to help them out in any way we can. I expect Wind Chill Warnings or Advisories for our area with this setup. 

Forecast Models 

I will not post all the forecast models to save time, but the GFS model is below. The other models show something similar; they just differ on the track. You guys know the drill here; if it's a track to the north, we would see lesser amounts; if it tracks more south, our snowfall would be higher. Right now, several inches is likely. 

Bottom Line

This will be a HIGH IMPACT event for much of the state. Rain will overspread the area on Thursday; as the colder arctic air crashes into the area Thursday night, the rain will quickly change to snow. The snow could become heavy at times. 

If you have travel plans for later this week, please monitor forecasts closely over the next few days.

 

Saturday Evening Update

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An Arctic cold front is expected to move into the Ohio Valley sometime Thursday. This front will bring much colder temperatures and windy conditions, making for dangerously cold wind chills. In addition, there is increasing confidence in snow moving into the region Thursday, possibly impacting holiday travel plans.

There is still no reason to get too excited just yet because we are still 5-6 days away; however, the threat of accumulating snowfall across our area for next week is increasing. 

Below are my latest thoughts:

GFS Forecast Model 

The latest update from the GFS model has shifted the storm to the Northwest, which also shifts the heaviest snow into Indiana. However, it still gives our area a decent snowfall by the end of the week. 

EURO Forecast Model

The European model has the right overall theme but is weaker and much further north. This would only give our area an inch or two. 

Canadian Forecast Model

The Canadian model is similar to the GFS and gives our area several inches. 

Bottom Line

We will have a decent idea of what to expect from this storm system by Monday—accumulating snow just before Christmas is a good bet, with heavy snow potentially on the table. There are still a TON of details that need to be resolved, so let's continue to monitor the latest trends and stay calm. 

Ill keep you all up to date with the latest, enjoy the evening!

 

 

Thursday Evening Update

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Good Afternoon, Folks! I know that most of you are dying for an update on the potential for some winter weather next week, so let's dig into the latest!

Bitterly cold air is expected to arrive in the Ohio Valley late next week. This cold air will remain in place through the Christmas holidays. Temperatures next weekend may be some 20-30 degrees below normal for late December. Some wintry weather may accompany the arrival of the cold air. However, that portion of the forecast needs to be determined. 

On Monday, I mentioned that our area would have arctic air, and we just needed a storm to take the right track for our region to see accumulating snow. We have the arctic air and a storm to track; we just need this storm to take the right track. 

8-14 Day Temperature Outlook

In the next 2-3 days, we will be in "monitoring mode." This means there is the potential for accumulating snow next week, but please keep in mind we are 6-8 days away, and plenty of things change. So let's keep our emotions in check (especially if you are a snow lover) because there will be swings in the data as it tries to sort out all the details. 

 

GFS Forecast Model 

The GFS model has a significant storm system that would impact our area in around 6-7 days, around Thursday, December 22nd. 

EURO Forecast Model

The EURO model shows a similar forecast but with a weaker system. 

Canadian Forecast Model

The Canadian model shows absolutely nothing for our area next week.

Bottom Line

Again, we are still early in the game here, folks. So, let's temper our expectations until the forecast can become more precise. However, I think our chances for accumulating snowfall are increasing, and it may be our best chance at a white Christmas since 2010. As always, ill be motioning things much closer than I usually do, and I'll post updates as needed! Stay tuned! 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monday Evening Update

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Good Afternoon, Folks! Thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall will be possible Tuesday night through Wednesday night. A localized, minor flooding threat cannot be ruled out. 1-2 inches of rain is possible during this timeframe. 

The big story that everyone is interested in is the pattern change that will take place during the second half of December. Almost all of the latest data suggests that cold arctic air will overtake much of the central/eastern U.S. Once you have cold air in place, you need a storm system to bring precipitation into the arctic air zone. We are still determining how far south this arctic air will track. If it's further north, our snow chances, locally, would be lower. If the cold arctic air is further south, our snow chances would be higher. Long story short, I only have a little information for you. But if you are hoping for snow on Christmas week, the first thing we need is Arctic air, and it appears we will have that. I will be watching things closely, and ill keep everyone updated as we progress closer and details become clearer! 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Changes Coming

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Good Afternoon, Folks! It's officially time to fire the blog back up as we head into winter! The blog will be updated at least once a week, with more posts if the weather is active!
Multiple rounds of rainfall are expected through early Friday. The heaviest rains are likely Thursday into Thursday night and could result in localized flooding.
I am monitoring a more significant storm system that will impact our area next week, which has the potential to produce strong storms while transitioning to isolated snow showers. The latest Canadian model shows that exact scenario: a line of solid storms followed by some light snow. It's hard to say how intense these storms will be or if any snow showers will accumulate. Both look unimpressive, but it's something to watch as we progress toward next week. I'll keep everyone updated, have a good evening!     

 

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